Author:

Keywords:

Bootstrap, Granger Causality, Lasso, Sentiment surveys, Time series forecasting

Abstract:

We study the predictive power of industry-specific economic sentiment indicators for future macro-economic developments. In addition to the sentiment of firms towards their own business situation, we study their sentiment with respect to the banking sector - their main credit providers. The use of industry-specific sentiment indicators results in a high-dimensional forecasting problem. To identify the most predictive industries, we present a bootstrap Granger Causality test based on the Adaptive Lasso. This test is more powerful than the standard Wald test in such high-dimensional settings. Forecast accuracy is improved by using only the most predictive industries rather than all industries.