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Abstract:

How do threatening experiences shape our political beliefs? Previous research has demonstrated right- and left-wing shifts as well as increased polarization in times of threat. The proposed project aims to provide an overarching framework to account for these diverging results by introducing the Threat Ownership Theory (TOT). TOT argues that attitude-shifts after collective threat will be contingent on the political entity perceived as most able to fix the issue, i.e. the entity “owning the threat". Secondly, the TOT hypothesizes that threats in which no party has a clear perceptual advantage will result in higher levels of political polarization. This pre-analysis plan outlines the research strategy (i.e., a between-subjects vignette experiment) used to test the key underlying assumptions of the threat ownership theory. This new theory holds both a theoretical and practical promise, as these findings can inform academics, policy-makers, and the general public in better understanding how threat might shape political beliefs.