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Keywords:

Conditionals, Probability, Triviality arguments, Semantics, Social Sciences, Psychology, Experimental, Psychology, MENTAL MODELS, INFERENCE, CAUSAL, IF, Adult, Culture, Humans, Judgment, Problem Solving, 0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing, 1701 Psychology, 1702 Cognitive Sciences, Experimental Psychology, 5201 Applied and developmental psychology, 5202 Biological psychology, 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology

Abstract:

According to what is now commonly referred to as "the Equation" in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional. Philosophers widely agree in their assessment that the triviality arguments of Lewis and others have conclusively shown the Equation to be tenable only at the expense of the view that indicative conditionals express propositions. This study challenges the correctness of that assessment by presenting data that cast doubt on an assumption underlying all triviality arguments.