Title: Short-term load forecasting, profile identification, and customer segmentation: A methodology based on periodic time series
Authors: Espinoza, M ×
Joye, C
Belmans, Ronnie
De Moor, Bart #
Issue Date: Aug-2005
Publisher: Ieee-inst electrical electronics engineers inc
Series Title: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems vol:20 issue:3 pages:1622-1630
Abstract: Results from a project in cooperation with the Belgian National Grid Operator ELIA are presented in this paper. Starting from a set of 245 time series, each one corresponding to four years of measurements from a HV-LV substation, individual modeling using Periodic Time Series yields satisfactory results for short-term forecasting or simulation purposes. In addition, we use the stationarity properties of the estimated models to identify typical daily customer profiles. As each one of the 245 substations can be represented by its unique daily profile, it is possible to cluster the 245 profiles in order to obtain a segmentation of the original sample in different classes of customer profiles. This methodology provides a unified framework for the forecasting and clustering problems.
ISSN: 0885-8950
Publication status: published
KU Leuven publication type: IT
Appears in Collections:ESAT - ELECTA, Electrical Energy Computer Architectures
ESAT - STADIUS, Stadius Centre for Dynamical Systems, Signal Processing and Data Analytics
× corresponding author
# (joint) last author

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