Author:

Keywords:

Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Astronomy & Astrophysics, Geochemistry & Geophysics, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Space weather, CMEs, SEPs, SHOCK ACCELERATION, MODEL, SIMULATION, C14/19/089#55221731, 0201 Astronomical and Space Sciences, 5109 Space sciences

Abstract:

Aims This H2020 project aims at developing the world’s most advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MHD solar wind and CME evolution modelling with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The ambitious EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely 1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and 2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Uccle (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results The EU H2020 project started six months ago, and the first results are very promising. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.