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Abstract:

Traces of the M-decree in statistics of special primary education: an interpretation Publicly available aggregated administrative data about the Flemish education system can be used to map the presence of consecutive birth cohorts in special primary education. The first part of this article presents these data up to the school year 2016–2017 in graphs and tables, highlighting several findings. The data show, first, that the long upward trend in the role of special primary education has recently levelled off and has now been reversed abruptly. Secondly, it turns out that, as a consequence, the size of special primary education has been reduced considerably, to the position of at least fourteen years ago. Thirdly: this reduction has been realised mainly in the two school years after the M-decree (the Decree of 21 March 2014 concerning Measures for Pupils with Specific Educational Needs) entered into force on 1 September 2015, but the change has set in earlier, from 2011–2012 onwards. Fourthly, the evolution after 1 September 2015 has not only been abrupt, but also irregular. The net pupil flow into special primary education decreased considerably in 2015−2016, but recovered partially in 2016−2017. The second part of the text consists of an interpretation of these findings. The shift after 1 September 2015 is attributed to a narrowing of the entrance into special primary education by the M-decree, which stopped an unintentional but structural and automatic growth mechanism. The earlier onset of the trend change is seen as an indication that the M-decree was not merely an unavoidable political response to the ratifying of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, but was also significantly supported by actors in education. Finally, three characteristics of Flemish compulsory education have been used to view the M-decree in a broader framework: the existence of parallel paths with clear demarcation walls, the intensive inter-school mobility of pupils, and the functioning of the education system as a market place with pupils and parents in the role of customers and schools as service providers. From this perspective, the expected impact of the M-decree as a tool for systemic change is rather limited.