Author:

Keywords:

Rainfall, Extremes, Trend analysis, Temporal variations, Science & Technology, Technology, Physical Sciences, Engineering, Environmental, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Water Resources, Engineering, Geology, high precipitation extreme, decadal analysis, anomaly, quantile perturbation method, atmospheric drivers, TEMPORAL VARIABILITY, RIVER BASIN, TRENDS, RAINFALL, DROUGHT, TEMPERATURE, INTENSITY, CLIMATE, ASSOCIATION, 2ND-HALF, 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, 0905 Civil Engineering, 0907 Environmental Engineering, Environmental Engineering, 37 Earth sciences, 40 Engineering

Abstract:

This study focuses on the empirical statistical analysis of the anomalies in daily precipitation extremes by applying the quantile perturbation method (QPM) to data from 31 Iranian weather stations during the period between 1961 and 2005. The possible causes behind the anomalies in precipitation extremes are identified by analyzing their relationship with the anomalies in eight atmospheric indices (i.e., NAO, SOI, PDO, AMO, NCP, DMI, WeMO, SSN). In terms of decadal oscillations, the country was generally wet in the 1960s and 1970s with most stations exhibiting periods of higher quantile perturbations, whereas lower quantile perturbations were dominant in the 1980s and 1990s. The highest perturbation in extreme precipitation quantiles prevails in Central Iran during the early 1980s, in which the quantiles are about 50% higher than the ones based on the full time series. The frequency of significant precipitation anomalies for winter season was greater than that for spring and autumn seasons. For the summer season, the humid region in North Iran demonstrates strong positive anomalies. The results highlight the noticeable role of large-scale climatic factors in the anomalous behavior of precipitation extremes in Iran. The atmospheric drivers of the quantile anomalies in extreme precipitation were found to differ from one season to another.