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Title: Comparative Election Forecasting: Further Insights from Synthetic Models
Authors: Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Dassonneville, Ruth # ×
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: Butterworths
Series Title: Electoral Studies vol:34 pages:275-283
Abstract: As an enterprise, election forecasting has spread and grown. Initial work began in the
1980s in the United States, eventually travelling to Western Europe, where it finds a
current outlet in the most of the region’s democracies. However, that work has been
confined to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a
new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These forecasts come from hybrid
models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion, to generate
ongoing nowcasts of Western European national contests, from six months prior to
Election Day itself. These test results, based on election pools from Germany, the United
Kingdom, and France, encourage similar research on other European electorates.
ISSN: 0261-3794
Publication status: published
KU Leuven publication type: IT
Appears in Collections:Centre for Political Research
× corresponding author
# (joint) last author

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