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Working paper n°18

Publication date: 2014-09-01
Publisher: Steunpunt Buitenlands beleid, internationaal ondernemen en ontwikkelingssamenwerking; Brussels (Belgium)

Author:

Soete, Sophie
Van Hove, Jan

Abstract:

This paper is the first to systematically study the trade effects of economic integration agreements (EIAs) between the European Union - the driving force behind the recent explosion of EIAs - and third countries. We quantify ex post the effects of these agreements through a gravity model using panel data on aggregate imports and exports for the period 1988-2011. We extend the literature in several ways. First, we include leads and lags to control for medium and long term anticipatory and reaction effects of EIAs. Both effects appear to be important to capture the true impact of EIAs. Second, we extensively analyze potential heterogeneous effects of various EIAs. We find that EIAs have very heterogeneous effects on trade flows. Third, we also estimate the effects of EIAs on trade flows separately for each European country. Contrary to our expectations, we find that EIAs have a rather homogeneous impact on the 27 European countries.