Author:

Keywords:

residential buildings, energy savings, aggregated level, Monte-Carlo analysis

Abstract:

When predicting energy savings at aggregated level, a common simplification is the representation of a large group of similar houses by one single representative dwelling, occupied by one specific inhabitant. The calculated energy savings for this representative dwelling are then multiplied with the number of houses to obtain the expected aggregated energy savings. In this paper, this representative dwelling approach is compared with the individual dwelling approach where multiple different dwellings are modelled separately and their energy savings are added. When combined with probabilistic user behaviour, it is found that the representative dwelling approach predicts similar mean aggregated savings, but underestimates the actual spread due to the lack of variety in building characteristics.