Author:

Keywords:

Statistical downscaling, River floods, Catchment modelling

Abstract:

A study has been carried out to quantify changes in flood indices due to possible climate change in catchments from different parts of Europe. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different downscaling methods have been implemented. The downscaling methods are generally categorized into change-factor based and bias correction approaches. Different hydrological models have been used in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from the daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing the periods 1960-1990 and 2070-2100. The results show that generally both the magnitude and the volume of the annual peak flows increase in most of the studied catchments, with a couple of catchments in Eastern Europe showing a downward change. The variability of the projected changes across the regional climate models are generally different for the different downscaling methods in different catchments, although no major systematic differences are noticed.