Author:

Keywords:

Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Infectious Diseases, Parasitology, Tropical Medicine, SEQUENCE ALIGNMENT, DYNAMICS, PHYLOGEOGRAPHY, MODEL, REPLACEMENT, PERFORMANCE, INTERFACE, EVOLUTION, SELECTION, HISTORY, Air Travel, Animals, Brazil, Dengue, Dengue Virus, Humans, 06 Biological Sciences, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, 31 Biological sciences, 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences, 42 Health sciences

Abstract:

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.