We estimate the impact of geo-located mining concessions on the number of conflict
events recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1997 and 2007.
Instrumenting the variable of interest with historical concessions interacted with
changes in international prices of minerals, we unveil an ecological fallacy: whereas
concessions have no effect on the number of conflicts at the territory level (lowest
administrative unit), they do foster violence at the district level (higher administrative
unit). We develop and validate empirically a theoretical model where the incentives of
armed groups to exploit and protect mineral resources explain our empirical findings.