Title: A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
Authors: Refsgaard, Jens Christian ×
Madsen, H.
Andréassian, V.
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
Davidson, T.A.
Drews, M.
Hamilton, D.
Jeppesen, E.
Kjellström, E.
Olesen, J.E.
Sonnenborg, T.O.
Trolle, D.
Willems, Patrick
Christensen, J.H. #
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Series Title: Climatic Change vol:122 issue:1-2 pages:271-282
Abstract: Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential splitsample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
ISSN: 0165-0009
Publication status: published
KU Leuven publication type: IT
Appears in Collections:Hydraulics Section
× corresponding author
# (joint) last author

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