International Conference on Mathematics and Sport edition:4 location:Leuven date:5-7 June 2013
This paper presents a contingent valuation of the ‘Tour of Flanders’, a major cycling event. In a representative population survey 461 respondents were asked to state their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the event. To obtain an accurate estimate of median and average WTP, models with different assumptions about (1) the latent WTP distribution and (2) the change in WTP when responding to the follow-up question in a double-bounded dichotomous framework were estimated using both a classical approach (using posterior maximization) and a fully Bayesian approach. Using a BIC criterion to select the model with the best balance between complexity and fit, a shift model (to correct for the follow-up question response bias) with a Weibull distribution for WTP was selected for further analysis.
The estimated average WTP equals 10.3 euro (with a 95% confidence interval between 9.0 euro and 11.9 euro), the estimated median WTP equals 4.2 euro (with a 95% confidence interval between 1.4 euro and 4.9 euro). The results of a regression analysis showed, amongst other things, that the individual valuation is higher for spectators and for inhabitants from the Flemish Ardennes (villages in the event’s core region where the Tour actually passes) and the surrounding villages (villages in the event’s core region but where the Tour does not pass). By contrast, inhabitants from the ‘departure/arrival/special village’ have a significantly lower WTP for the Tour of Flanders. An extrapolation of the individual WTP that takes into account spatial differences and other individual characteristics leads to a total estimated aggregate value for the Tour of Flanders of 24.3 million euro.