Hydrology and Earth System Sciences & Discussions vol:10 pages:6445-6471
Investigation was made on the climate change signal for hydrometeorological and hydrological variables for the Paute River basin, in southern Ecuador Andes, making use
of an adjusted quantile perturbation approach for climate downscaling, and the impact of climate change on runoff for two nested catchments within the basin. The analysis was done making use of long daily series of seven representative rainfall and temperature sites along the study area and considering climate change signals of global and regional climate models for IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The determination of runoff was carried out using a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model.
The study found that the range of changes in temperature is despicably lower that the range of changes in rainfall. However, changes differ from site to site, showing that
more significant changes in temperature are observed at higher elevation sites. For rainfall, high differences in rainfall change are found and strongly related to the rainfall regime. Higher changes are detected for sites located in regions with bimodal rainfall regime. In addition, higher changes are observed on higher temporal resolutions. The runoff changes are strongly related to the changes in rainfall peaks, more than with the changes in temperature; also showing strong spatial differences over the Andean region considered.