Nederlandsch Genootschap voor Internationale Zaken
Internationale Spectator: Tijdschrift voor Internationale Politiek vol:63 issue:2 pages:91-94
Dirk Rochtus surveys the 'frozen conflict' regarding Nagorno Karabakh, the Armenian enclave on the territory of Azerbaijan. The five days war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008 over South Ossetia came as a cold shower to Azerbaijan, that aims to bring Nagorno-Karabakh back under its control. The question is whether a not entirely unlikely attempt by Baku at 'solving' this frozen conflict by military means will hold the risk of Russia coming to the aid of its Armenian partner. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia would sacrifice its relationship with Azerbaijan in which oil and security are paramount. Azerbaijan appeals to its territorial integrity whereas the Karabakh-Armenians are determined to defend their since long-exercised self-determination if a new war with Azerbaijan were to break out.