Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (AERA) location:San Francisco, CA, USA date:27 April - 1 May 2013
The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a notorious probability problem with a counterintuitive solution. There is a strong tendency to stay with the initial choice, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. The current randomized experiment investigates whether feedback in a series of trials improves performance on the MHD. Feedback was either conditional or non-conditional, and was given either in frequency format or in percentage format. Results show that people learn most with conditional feedback in frequency format, but contrary to our expectations also non-conditional feedback in percentage format improved performance. Implications of these results for understanding students’ intuitions and reasoning about probabilities, and for the teaching of statistics are discussed.