Res Publica: Tijdschrift voor Politologie vol:54 issue:3 pages:289-308
In a closed or semi-open PR-system, the designation of the MPs is primarily determined
by their position on the list. In this paper, we attempt to fi nd out on the basis of which
criteria a party selects the candidates who are most likely to be elected, due to their
high and/or visible position on the list. We do so by comparing these realistic candidates
with the candidates on unrealistic positions on the list. A multi-level logistic analysis
of the Flemish candidates in four subsequent federal elections in Belgium shows that
the selectorates have a marked preference for incumbents and for mayors. Aldermen
also stand a better chance of being elected, but only if they are from a larger communality.
Women are strongly underrepresented amongst the realistic candidates, but this
is only due to the fact that there are relatively few women mayors and incumbents.