Title: Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer
Authors: Lee, C K ×
Simes, R J
Brown, C
Lord, S
Wagner, U
Plante, M
Vergote, Ignace
Pisano, C
Parma, G
Burges, A
Bourgeois, H
Högberg, T
Bentley, J
Angleitner-Boubenizek, L
Ferrero, A
Richter, B
Hirte, H
Gebski, V
Pfisterer, J
Pujade-Lauraine, E
Friedlander, M #
Issue Date: Sep-2011
Publisher: Harcourt Publishers
Series Title: British Journal of Cancer vol:105 issue:8 pages:1144-50
Article number: 10.1038/bjc.2011.364
Abstract: Background:Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.Methods:The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.Results:The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.Conclusion:This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 13 September 2011; doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.364
ISSN: 0007-0920
Publication status: published
KU Leuven publication type: IT
Appears in Collections:Gynaecological Oncology
× corresponding author
# (joint) last author

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