Proceedings of the Sixth International conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility in Modelling vol:2 pages:619-624
Sixth International conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility in Modelling edition:6 location:Denmark date:9-13 September 2007
Conceptual model uncertainty is one of the most difficult problems to deal with in
the practice of groundwater modelling. In recent years, several methodologies, based on the
construction and calibration of alternative models, have been proposed to face this problem. In
this article, a more general and flexible approach than those previously developed is described.
We achieve this combining the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and the
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methodologies. Implementing the GLUE methodology
ensures that a large set of acceptable simulators, i.e., conceptual models and parameter sets, are
included in the analysis, therefore, avoiding compensation of the conceptual model errors and
biased parameter estimates. Implementing the BMA approach allows the inclusion of previous
knowledge about the system and the obtaining of consensus multi-model predictions.
Preliminary results show that the approach provides a general and flexible framework to
account for predictive uncertainty due to the specification of alternative conceptual models.