K.U.Leuven - Departement toegepaste economische wetenschappen
DTEW Research Report 09529 pages:1-29
We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over eight hundred addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, (2)the importance of intervention programs aimed at youths, and (3) the possibility to identify high-risk groups, which may allow for a more effective targeting of drug prevention and treatment programs.