Title: Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer
Authors: Burzykowski, T. ×
Buyse, M.
Piccart-Glebhart, M.J.
Sledge, G.
Carmichael, J.
Luck, H.J.
Mackey, J.R.
Nabholtz, J.M.
Paridaens, Robert
Biganzoli, L.
Jassem, J.
Bontenbal, M.
Bonneterre, J.
Chan, S.
Basaran, G.A.
Therasse, P. #
Issue Date: 20-Apr-2008
Publisher: Grune & Stratton
Series Title: Journal of Clinical Oncology vol:26 issue:12 pages:1987-1992
Abstract: Purpose: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer.
Patients and methods: Individual patient data were collected on 3953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points.
Results: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative.
Conclusion: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.
ISSN: 0732-183X
Publication status: published
KU Leuven publication type: IT
Appears in Collections:Laboratory of Experimental Oncology
× corresponding author
# (joint) last author

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