Author:

Keywords:

Real-time estimation, Robustness, Time series, Variability, Volatility

Abstract:

This paper compares methods for variability extraction from a univariate time series in real time. The online scale estimation is achieved by applying a robust scale functional to a moving time window. Scale estimators based on the residuals of a preceding regression step are compared with regression-free and model-free techniques in a simulation study and in an application to a real time series. In the presence of level shifts or strong non-linear trends in the signal level, the model-free scale estimators perform especially well. However, the investigated regression-free and regression-based methods have higher breakdown points, they are applicable to data containing temporal correlations, and they are much more efficient.