Journal of Construction Engineering & Management vol:134 issue:11 pages:885-895
An integrated methodology is developed for planning construction projects under uncertainty.
The methodology relies on a computer supported risk management system that allows for the
identification, analysis and quantification of the major risk factors and the derivation of their
probability of occurrence and their impact on the duration of the project activities. Using
project management estimates of the marginal cost of activity starting time disruptions, a
heuristic procedure is used to develop a stable proactive baseline schedule that is sufficiently
protected against the anticipated disruptions that may occur during project execution and that
exhibits acceptable makespan performance. We illustrate the application of the methodology
on a real life construction project and demonstrate that our proactive scheduler generates
baseline schedules that outperform the schedules generated by commercial software packages
in terms of robustness and timely project completion probability.