2nd International Conference on Bibliometrics, Scientometrics and Informetrics location:London (Canada) date:4-7 July 1989
Cumulative advantage principle is a specific law underlying several social, particularly, bibliometric and scientometric processes. This phenomenon was described by single- and multiple-urn models (Price, 1976, Tague, 1981). A theoretical model for cumulative advantage growth was developed by Schubert and Glänzel (1984). This paper presents an exact measure of the cumulative advantage effect based on conditional expectations. For a given bibliometric random variable X (e.g. publication activity, citation rate) the cumulative advantage function is defined as mu(k ) = E((X-k)|(X-k)>=0)/E(X). The 'extent of advantage' i s studied on the basis of limit properties of this function. The behavior of mu(k) is discussed for the urn-model distributions, particularly for its most prominent representatives, the negative-binomial and the Waring distribution. The discussion is illustrated by several examples from bibliometric distributions.